Summary of market expectations for natural gas inventories data –
This Thursday, we await the Energy Information Administration’s report on natural gas stocks, with expectations that they will record 2510 billion cubic feet in storage during the week ending February 5th.
Projections are for a decline of 179 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 58 billion cubic feet from last year and 54 billion from the five-year average.
Over the next 30 days, total natural gas demand is projected to be 126.0 billion cubic feet per day, which is 11.7 billion cubic feet per day higher than last year.
If you have contracts (March or April), you are hostage to the whims of the weather.
Strategically and fundamentally, it makes sense to buy from the bottoms of the summer contracts as the EOiS Storage Index is currently very low.
We note the fluctuation of natural gas prices on the chart and the stability of its movement between the levels of $ 3 and $ 2.75. But it is still trading above a rising trend line and the 50 and 100 moving averages on the 4 hour chart. After its recent bounce from $ 2.75 levels, the odds of seeing a retest of the $ 3 levels increase. This possibility will diminish with the price breaking the support of $ 2.75, and lower levels appear on the horizon.
In all cases, natural gas remains currently under seasonal temperature pressure, as we notice that the demand for natural gas is affected by global temperatures. As temperatures rise in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand for natural gas may decline. Usually, this occurs during this period every year, and with the decline in gas prices, more investors tend to sell natural gas contracts, which puts pressure on its price.